Nebius plans $40 billion of mostly customer-funded spending as its Microsoft site slips

TechCrunch reports that Nebius laid out $40 billion to $45 billion in planned 2027 capital spending, far more than Wall Street expected, and plans to pay for most of it with customer prepayments and loans backed by customer contracts. In effect, the future value of the data centers finances their construction. Its finance chief named the Microsoft and Meta contracts as ones that can be financed with asset-backed debt.

Third-quarter revenue was $981 million, up 571% from a year earlier, though roughly a third came from a one-time payment tied to a new partnership model. Nebius forecast 2027 revenue of $12 billion to $13 billion, has $7.4 billion in cash and expects pre-tax breakeven by Q4 2027.

Nebius’s Microsoft contract is worth up to $19.4 billion, and the Vineland, New Jersey, site serving it is months behind. Only a little over half of that capacity is slated for delivery by year-end, with the rest pushed to Q2 2027. Nebius cut its 2026 revenue forecast by $200 million to $3 billion, and the stock closed down 17%.

Prepayment financing only works when buildings arrive on schedule. If capacity is late, costs keep running while revenue slips, and the Microsoft contract allows termination after a grace period if dates are missed and no alternative capacity is offered. It also carries penalties for late delivery. Nebius says Microsoft has been part of the planning; it didn’t say Microsoft agreed to the new dates.

According to an investigation by Floodlight, the site’s third-party operator, DataOne, ran at least 45 natural gas generators without permits, and state regulators fined the facility $1.1 million. Residents are suing over a constant hum. Nebius blames the delay on the operator winding down temporary generation faster than expected while it switches to Bloom Energy fuel cells. The community pushback and the schedule slip are the same story: cut corners on power and permits, and the delay arrives later. A federal judge recently rejected xAI’s similar “mobile turbine” defense in Memphis (our analysis).

Bloomberg reports Microsoft is tightening oversight of third-party builders, including Nebius, IREN and Nscale, and debating whether new deals are worth it. Microsoft also said third-party delays pushed its own capex below plan. Microsoft’s financial ties to AI remain enormous (its $10 billion OpenAI quarter), so if the biggest buyer of neocloud capacity demands proof before paying, the prepayment engine slows for everyone. Corporate AI spending data has also shown signs of flattening (Ramp data).

The neocloud model is a real contribution: these firms add capacity faster than hyperscalers alone, and prepayments are a strong demand signal. Nebius says its self-built sites are on time or early, will supply most new capacity from 2027, and that Q3 deals came with prepayments covering build cost. Still, a plan where up to 85% of spending rests on customer money is only as solid as the next delivery date. More in our business coverage and Microsoft coverage.